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๐‹๐ž๐ก๐ฆ๐š๐ง ๐œ๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ž๐š๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฅ๐Ÿ - ๐ง๐จ๐ญ

๐€ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ญ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ง๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ฌ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ข๐ง๐  ๐ฐ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ญ๐ž๐ง ๐š๐ ๐š๐ข๐ง. ๐€ ๐œ๐ฅ๐š๐ซ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง:

In addition to the price weaknesses and sell-offs I announced for September, there is now another imponderable: the Chinese real estate giant $03333.HK (China Evergrande Group) is tottering, which brings back bad memories of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy for many. Even the major business newspapers are writing articles that scare market participants. That is why this week started weak. It began in Asia, reached Europe and now America - sellers everywhere. But their fear is relatively unfounded.


The Chinese real estate giant Evergrande is in a deep crisis. A huge mountain of debt, equivalent to more than 300 billion US dollars, weighs on the company. Since the beginning of the year, the value of its shares has fallen by three quarters. Some of the corporate bonds are trading at only a third of their nominal value.


๐ˆ๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐‹๐ž๐ก๐ฆ๐š๐ง ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐…๐š๐ซ ๐„๐š๐ฌ๐ญ?

Many are worried about the future of the group, some already fear possible effects on the banking system and the Chinese real estate market. It is fairly certain that Evergrande will not survive in its current form. But warnings of a new Lehman crisis belong to the realm of fairy tales. There is hardly any risk of contagion for the global financial system. And this point is forgotten by many (not so) diligent writers in the business papers:


๐„๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐š๐ง๐๐ž ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐จ๐ซ๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ๐ž๐ ๐ฆ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐œ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ž ๐›๐š๐ง๐ค๐ฌ, ๐ฐ๐ก๐ข๐œ๐ก ๐š๐ซ๐ž ๐ง๐จ๐ฐ ๐ก๐จ๐ฅ๐๐ข๐ง๐  ๐›๐š๐œ๐ค ๐จ๐ง ๐ง๐ž๐ฐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐š๐ง๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐œ๐š๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ž ๐๐ž๐ข๐ฃ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐ฐ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐œ๐ฅ๐ž๐š๐ง ๐ฎ๐ฉ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ก๐จ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐ญ๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ญ๐จ๐ซ. ๐‡๐จ๐ฐ๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ, ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ ๐จ๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐ง๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐ฅ๐ฌ๐จ ๐ค๐ง๐จ๐ฐ๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐š๐ญ ๐ข๐ญ ๐œ๐š๐ง๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐›๐ฅ๐ž๐ž๐ ๐š ๐ ๐ข๐š๐ง๐ญ ๐ฅ๐ข๐ค๐ž ๐„๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐š๐ง๐๐ž ๐๐ซ๐ฒ. ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฅ๐ข๐ค๐ž๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐œ๐ž๐ง๐š๐ซ๐ข๐จ: ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐œ๐š๐ฅ ๐ฅ๐ž๐š๐๐ž๐ซ๐ฌ๐ก๐ข๐ฉ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ž๐ฉ ๐ข๐ง ๐ข๐ง ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฆ๐ž ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ. ๐“๐ก๐ž๐ง ๐š ๐ฅ๐ž๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ฒ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐œ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐ฐ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ.


Clearly, it does not look good for Evergrande investors and bond buyers. Everyone should rather keep their powder dry, take a deep breath and stop acting so fearful. Fear appeals to the ancient primitive reflexes in our brains and makes us act rashly - and we would be best advised not to.


At the risk of repeating myself, such price reversals are perfect opportunities to start copying or increase the copy amount - with *copy open trades* ticked.


Have a good week!


BR


$SPX500$UK100$DJ30$GER40

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