🟢 𝟐𝟎.𝟐𝟕%: 𝟏𝟐-𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡𝐬-𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧
🔴 -𝟐.𝟐𝟒%: 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡𝐥𝐲 𝐏𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞
🟢 𝟏.𝟕%: 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐃𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐲 𝐏𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞
What a year! A lot has happened in 2021, both personally and professionally, and many things have been sown that can be harvested in the future. The fact that not every seed germinates and that there are always setbacks and failures is part of the game and should not frustrate anyone in the long term - "heiter weiter", as we say in Germany (like "keep cheering").
The new year will start with familiar challenges: persistent supply bottlenecks - e.g. for the computer chips needed in almost all industries - continue to act as a brake on global economic growth. The new Corona variant Omikron carries the risk that production and delivery processes could be delayed again by new tightening of the Corona measures in Asia, for example.
Subject to this "omicron risk", the supply bottlenecks should ease visibly after the Chinese New Year in February at the latest and normalise in the course of 2022. This increases the chance that companies will be able to process more orders from their bulging order books. One example is $TSLA (Tesla Motors, Inc.) which could report fullminant results from Q4 2021 at the turn of the year.
𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐧𝐞𝐰 𝐦𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐬
From spring onwards, the Corona situation should ease considerably. Progressive vaccination campaigns and effective drugs should lead to a transition from the pandemic to the endemic phase in the course of the year. Accordingly, growth should continue and rising demand for services should again accelerate the economic engine in the second half of the year.
Inflation is another issue that concerns the economy and the capital market. In Germany, the inflation rate climbed in November to its highest level in about 30 years. Inflation in the USA was 6.8 percent in November 2021.
𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚 𝐠𝐨𝐨𝐝 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐢𝐧 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟐 𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧
The latest announcements by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on tapering its bond purchases suggest that the exit from the expansive monetary policy in the USA could take place more quickly than previously expected. The end of the emergency purchase programme of the European Central Bank (ECB) also seems foreseeable for March. Overall, however, the exit from ultra-expansive monetary policy will probably be gentle on the market. While the Fed is slowly putting on the brakes, the ECB is merely taking its foot off the gas.
This is the environment in which the capital markets are moving as they seek normality after the Corona crisis. In perspective, the pandemic should lose its capital market impact, inflation rates should gradually normalise next year and supply constraints should ease in the course of 2022. Along the way, increased volatility is to be expected given the uncertainty surrounding the new Corona variant Omikron. But in the event of a significant deterioration, central banks should be able to intervene in a supportive manner or would not end their support in the first place.
Due to the fundamentally positive growth outlook and the robust demand so far, the chances of an encouraging stock market year are good. Equities should remain the most attractive asset class in 2022, and the upswing in the commodities market should continue. Decarbonisation in particular will continue to drive prices there. The portfolio is well aligned for this with its high silver share in $PSLV.
On the bond markets, the inflation trend and the first normalisation of monetary policy should lead to a moderate rise in yields on "safe havens" such as German or US government bonds. Corporate bonds are losing some of their attractiveness, but there are still opportunities - for example in the high-yield segment.
𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐟𝐮𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬: $UVXY, $LTHM (Livent Corp) , $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation), $PSLV, $RSKD (Riskified Inc.), $BNTX (BioNTech SE), $MRK (Merck & Co.), $SQ (Block Inc.), $FB (Meta Platforms Inc)
𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭 𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬: $UVXY (daytrading position)
𝐅𝐘𝐈: I add funds monthly to steady build wealth. Adding funds to my account may affect the proportion of your copied positions, depending on which option you choose below. Please note that you will receive a push notification telling you the exact proportion by which I increased the equity and how much funds you should add to maintain the same copy proportion:
𝘼𝙙𝙙 𝙢𝙤𝙧𝙚 𝙛𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙮𝙤𝙪𝙧 𝙥𝙤𝙨𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 - This method will incur no additional fees or disruptions. If you increase your copy position by the same proportion as me, you will match my addition and maintain a synchronized copy relationship.
𝘿𝙤 𝙣𝙤𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙣𝙜 - You can keep your copy position as-is, but please know that some of the copied positions will change proportion.
I wish you all a wonderful and prosperous year!
BR
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